Betfair: British Moto GP Betting: Stoner can dash Rossi’s Donnington dream

Today’s update from Betfair:

Sunny with patchy biblical downpours - it must be summer in the East Midlands and time for the British MotoGP. Trent Burton reports from Donnington…

Previously in Moto GP

The German GP last weekend was a case of the usual suspects. Valentino Rossi struck another blow to team-mate Jorge Lorenzo with another victory over the Spaniard by less than a tenth of a second. Dani Pedrosa completed the podium with Casey Stoner back in fourth. Randy De Puniet calls them the ‘aliens’ - the four untouchables. For everyone else a fifth place is a virtual victory.

The Track: Donington Park

It’s our last visit to Donington and while some will be sad to see it go, there’s probably just as many glad to see the back of it. It’s a difficult circuit for set-up with the fast flowing first section followed by the stop and go latter half. It’s impossible to get a bike working perfectly everywhere, so you need to set it up best for the sections where you stand to make up the most time. Rossi may have seven victories to his name here but he hasn’t won since 2005. Three years ago Pedrosa won and Stoner has romped it home the last two. Of course, apart from the track itself, there’s always the unpredictable four-seasons-in-one-day weather to contend with here. Currently I’m soaked, hot, covered in mud and slightly sunburnt…

The Championship Contenders

Rossi loves it here and has spoken all week about how keen he is to win Donington’s last race. It’s hard to gauge much from today’s times as the session was run in ever changing weather but the Italian was always near the pointy end. His current form is fantastic and he’s a well-deserved [2.32] favourite. Lorenzo proved yet again last week that injuries are of little consequence to him with a barnstorming ride to nearly take the win. That said, despite a 250cc win here, Donington has never treated Jorge that well. The [5.0] on offer is a decent price for a win, but I just can’t see him doing it.

The Fiat Yamaha duo may be in the in form pair but personally I like the look of the other two aliens this week. Pedrosa always goes well here and looked solid to lead all comers today. At [5.0] for the win as well, I see him as much better value than his fellow countryman. And then there’s Stoner on a hat-trick. Last week he said his sickness felt a little better than it has lately and the cooler English conditions may help him this weekend. With all the focus on the Yamaha guys, there’s not as much pressure on the Australian as there has been in previous years and talking to him this morning he was relaxed as I’ve seen him in a long time, despite his illness woes. Second on the sheets today, he may not like Donington but he’s hugely quick here. If it stays cool, at [6.6] for the win, he’s the bet of the round for mine.

The Pursuing Pack

The best of the rest is a gamble this weekend as Donington always throws up a few surprises. Even though half the session was run in the wet, Chris Vermeulen still struggled so he’s an easy lay if a few good prices come in with the bad weather. Nicky Hayden, Marco Melandri and Andrea Dovizioso all looked good throughout the afternoon and would be well worth a top six punt. As for the great British hope in James Toseland it was another day to forget with a run off track followed by a bike problem cutting his session short.

The Last Word

Qualifying tomorrow should be interesting as we’re expecting a dry day. Sunday too is supposed to be dry but no-one’s committing to that with much confidence. If the weather holds I’m going with Stoner from Rossi and Pedrosa, a repeat of last year. I’ll be back tomorrow with a report on qualifying, a look at the markets heading into Sunday and a weather update. As I look out the press box right now, it’s chucking it down…

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