Betfair: Euro U21 Betting: England v Germany

Today’s update from Betfair:

They’ve already won a penalty shootout. Can the England U21s now beat Germany to become champions of Europe? Tobias Gourlay ponders the big question of your Monday morning.

Twenty-seven years on from an aggregate victory over Germany in the two-legged final of the 1982 European Under-21 Championships, and 25 years on from a similar win over Spain, England are one match away from a third title. Germany have never won this competition, but, having claimed the European U19 Championship last July and won the U17 continental crown last month, Germany are on course for an unprecedented clean sweep of UEFA age-group competitions.

The last three finals have been won by margins of three goals, but it is widely expected that this historic match-up will be somewhat closer. A week ago, the Three Lion Cubs, who are currently [1.79] to lift the trophy and [2.54] to do so after 90 minutes, were already qualified for the semi-finals and sent out a reserve team for their group-stage match with Der Kleine Mannschaft. They drew 1-1, and extended their record at Under-21 level to four wins and four draws in nine matches with their old rivals. The sole defeat came in the second leg of that 1982 final.

Stuart Pearce’s squad has faltered twice in its progress to this final. In the opening game of the tournament, they were ahead against Finland when Michael Mancienne was sent off. The Finns scored from the ensuing penalty and did not deserve to lose 2-1. Then, at the semi-final stage, another bunch of Scandinavians asked some more difficult questions about English nerve. England gave up a 3-0 half-time lead to Sweden, the tournament hosts, but eventually won through on penalties, despite a calamitous miss by James Milner, their captain and first-choice penalty-taker.

Germany, who left their top-scorer in qualifying, Rouwen Hennings, at home in order to play attacking midfielders upfront, have been rather more boring. Jack Rodwell’s goal in the aforementioned 1-1 draw is the only one they have conceded. In their other group-stage matches, they drew 0-0 with Spain and beat Finland 2-0. Horst Hrubesch’s men were easily outplayed in the first-half of their semi-final with Italy, but a long-range strike by Andreas Beck early in the second-half was enough to win the game.

Germany’s best player, as he has been throughout the tournament, was the highly-rated Schalke goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer. He will be prominent in the thinking of the layers who are offering just [1.58] on Under 2.5 Goals, just as the absences of suspended England strikers Gabriel Agbonlahor and Fraizer Campbell are. Without those two, Theo Walcott is Pearce’s only obvious selection as a central striker. The England coach must also do without goalkeeper Joe Hart, who is also suspended.

The German coach has one player suspended, forward Ashkan Dejagah, but will be pleased that captain Sami Khedira and winger Marko Marin have been passed fit to play.

Germany’s rare goals have all come in second-half, except for Gonzalo Castro’s fourth-minute effort against England. The English, meanwhile, have scored within the opening half-hour of three of their four games. Only Spain, the pre-tournament favourites, kept them at bay for longer. There might, then, be a touch of value about [1.90] for England to score the Next Goal. Alternatively, [3.40] is available for England to be ahead at half-time. If you think Neuer can keep England’s makeshift forward line at bay for at least three quarters of an hour, the half-time draw will appeal at [2.06], but the 0-0 half-time score might be preferable at [2.52].

So what have we learnt? England are under-powered upfront, relative to previous matches in the tournament, and will be without their first-choice goalkeeper. Germany, whose best so far has been less impressive than England’s, have been under-powered upfront throughout, and have a goalkeeper in very good form. It is difficult to argue with the heavy favouritism of Under 2.5 Goals, but that [1.57] price is not an exciting. The prospect of a low-scoring game raises the spectre of the draw at 90 minutes, which at [3.30] is longer than either of the possible positive results. If you absolutely must place a bet on this match, the full-time draw is this column’s tentative recommendation.

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