Betfair: Euro U21 Betting: Sweden v England

Today’s update from Betfair:

Can Stuart Pearce’s Three Lions go one step further than two years ago by reaching the European Under-21 Championship final? They’ll have to overcome the tournament’s most prolific scorers to do so, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Sweden U21s v England U21s draw @ [3.45].

England may have cruised through the opening phase of the tournament, but you get the impression there’s still a lot more to come from Stuart Pearce’s side.

2-1 and 2-0 wins over Finland and Spain respectively ensured qualification for the semi-finals with a game to spare and a 1-1 draw against Germany rounded off their programme of pool games in a perfectly acceptable fashion. It’s a measure of just how talented Pearce’s squad is that they dominated against Spain and were then the better side against Germany despite making 10 changes to their starting line-up.

The twin challenges that face England against Sweden at the Ullevi Stadium in Gothenburg on Friday afternoon (5pm kick-off UK time) will be to silence the noisy home crowd and nullify the blistering attacking threat of the tournament’s top scorers. Sweden began with a coruscating 5-1 win over Belarus and recovered from a 2-1 defeat against Italy in their second game to beat highly-fancied Serbia 3-1 in their final group match. Those results have them an outstanding average of three goals a game and Marcus Berg, already a full international, is clearly the main danger man - he’s become the first player in U21 finals history to net five goals at a single tournament.

Sweden have conceded in every game, though, and England potentially have a huge advantage at set-pieces. Pearce’s side have scored two of their five goals from headers at corners while Sweden have conceded two of four in exactly the same way. I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone such as Micah Richards go up from the back and score in the air.

So England should slightly shade this game - although, looking at the prices, Pearce’s side appear overvalued at [2.18]. The draw at [3.45] and Sweden at [3.85] are both too big since the difference in quality between the sides is relatively small so I can only recommend, almost against my better instincts, the draw or a lay of England in order to make the most of the available prices.

The only other market to capture my attention is over 2.5 goals at [2.42]. The stats indicate how prolific Sweden are and if Theo Walcott, Gabriel Agbonlahor and England’s other attacking starlets finally click into gear, we could see an open, attacking encounter. Semi-finals often end up being cagey affairs, though, so I’d rather stick to the match outcome than risk losing profit on the goals market.

* James Eastham has made 8.14pts profit (after 5% commission) from 9pts staked on the European Under-21 Championship finals so far.

Betfair lets you set and lay odds just like a bookmaker, meaning you always get the odds you want. To start betting against other punters visit Betfair and claim your free bet.