Betfair: Hungarian Grand Prix Betting: Vettel’s race to win

Today’s update from Betfair:

Scott Ferguson assesses the Betfair markets after the final round of qualifying at the Hungarian Grand Prix…

Hungaroring is much like Monaco - very twisty-turny, lots of short sharp acceleration and need for grip.

It’s also been the scene of maiden victories for quite a few drivers including Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso. Why? With less overtaking possible, less experienced drivers find it easier to hold a lead once they get there.

This weekend will be warm again, which should have given the Brawn team no excuses about their tyres suffering with low track temperatures. But even with the Brawn drivers having an upgrade in aerodynamics for this race, they’ve not been on the pace. In fact, with Jenson Button starting P8 and Rubens Barrichello P12 after Felipe Massa’s accident, they have no chance of winning.

The McLarens have had more of their ongoing upgrades as they attempt to catch the field before the season ends. They impressed during the free practice sessions, but they have ended up in awkward grid positions. With Lewis Hamilton on P4 and Heikki Kovalainen directly behind him, they are on the dirty side of the track.

They have Red Bull teammates ahead of them in positions two and three. Mark Webber will be quicker off the line than the heavier KERS car of Hamilton, but the McLaren can fly past coming into turn one. If Webber moves right, keeping Hamilton to the dirty line and so he cant fly down the middle, he can only cause carnage at the first corner by trying to overtake Vettel into turn one. That’s not Hamilton’s style and I can see him being blocked going into the first corner. It’s a long first straight, but turn one is also a hairpin so a battle of nerves awaits.

Remember, the guys at the front of the grid are usually there because they know when to go for it and when to pull out, rather than midfield guys who tend to be hit and miss. I can see trouble on the first bend, but not from drivers in the front rows.

Fernando Alonso starts on pole but is playing down his chances of winning. Without the weights being published yet, it’s tough to make a call on strategies, but it’s probably Vettel’s race to win from outside the front row. At [2.58] to win, it’s probably a bet, but even better is Vettel to be first lap leader. If he gets there he wins, and at [6.0] and above that’s worth an investment.

This track can be a scene of carnage, or a lot of breakdowns due to stress on the cars. The grid is already one car short and we have had races here with only 13 of 22 cars finishing.

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